When Is the Best Time to Buy Game Tickets?
An analysis of multiple years of data.
Going to a Raider game is an invigorating experience.
The energy and roar of the diehard crowd, the juice that flows through the corridors as you walk around, and the hope & good times that percolate through every tailgate – watching the Silver & Black take the field is an awesome thing to behold.
When Allegiant Stadium opened and we had the 1st season with fans, I was blown away by how much ticket prices had dropped for the 1st & 2nd ever home games in Allegiant Stadium. When the Ravens tickets first dropped (which was not only the first game with fans, but also the season opener), it would’ve cost you thousands of dollars to get seats. Seats that I later saw sell for barely a couple hundred bucks (≤ $250/ea) – including fees!
Blown away, I knew I had to figure out how to capture this data to help fans save their hard earned cash from greedy scalpers. And so that’s what I did. The following is the data from every game since then. With multiple seasons of data, and 1 where we went to the playoffs & another where we flopped hard, we can also see the influence that meta events have on ticket prices: like the 2021 Week 18 Chargers game with the playoffs on the line.
So everyone, let’s start saving on ticket funds and redirecting that cash to go on more vacations, enjoying more food & beverages at the games, and much more! A dollar saved is a dollar earned – now let’s put some money in your pocket.
* Among all ticket services, I’ve found Ticketmaster to have the lowest prices. Others claim lower prices, but after fees almost always end up more expensive. I’ve checked every single service ad nauseum. I have no doubt you will hear someone claim to have gotten some steal elsewhere, but for whatever it’s worth, after years of collecting and analyzing this data, I personally recommend Ticketmaster to my friends & family. Of course it doesn’t hurt to quickly check, but always be sure to compare what your final price will be after fees.
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
(tap to skip to game ticket data || then simply tap game title to return to Table of Contents once there)
2023
2022
2021
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► CLOSING WORDS ◄
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2023 Season
Week 3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2023 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 1–1, #4 Seed || Steelers: 1–1, #5 Seed
We had just gotten whooped by the Bills (38-10). Not even close.
Notable Events:
This was the 1st Home Game of the post-Carr era.
Also the 1st time the Steelers had played in Vegas. Two rabid fanbases, converging in the home opener.
15 minutes before kickoff, there were hundreds of fans outside the stadium still trying to buy tickets.
Rabid fanbases + Historic rivalry + 1st Time in Vegas + Infrequent matchup + Primetime.. HOT ticket.
*Note that even despite all this, prices STILL reached lows in the days heading into the game.
Waiting until the actual day of is always a risk!
HYPE CHECK:
I’ll be providing background (Record & Seed #s) for added context to show what effect “bigger picture” happenings have on ticket prices.
Heavyweight fights can be big ticket events that start to draw big crowds.
But will even these events drop significantly? Does it make any sense at all to buy them early? Will prices drop no matter what? What stops price drops?
“Release” is the day the schedule released!
–15 Wks, –11 Wks & –6 Wks was 1, 2 & 3 months after schedule release.
As such, seedings were N/A yet.
–
At –7 Days we were coming off having defeated DEN (as is tradition) in our season opener.
We then got whooped by BUF that day, so from –6 Days on we were 1–1 (#4 Seed) as we took on the Steelers who were 1–1 (#5 Seed).
Week 5 vs. Green Bay Packers (2023 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 1–3, #14 Seed || Packers: 2–2, #9 Seed
We had just lost to the Chargers. We could not stop shooting ourselves in the foot.
Notable Events:
Raider Nation was very demoralized after the LAC loss the week prior, with it sending us to 1–3.
We committed 9 penalties. If you beat yourself does that count as a victory?
Aidan O’Connell (“AOC”) had a very bad outing in his debut: 3 Fumbles, 1 INT, and he was Sacked 6 times by Khalil Mack.
That he was standing in for Jimmy G who’d already looked like a clear downgrade from Carr, had many down in the Nation.
Nonetheless, the lights awaited in this Monday Night Football Game.
HYPE CHECK:
“Release” is the day the schedule released!
–15 Wks, –11 Wks & –6 Wks was 1, 2 & 3 months after schedule release.
As such, seedings were N/A yet.
–
At –22 Days we were coming off having defeated DEN (as is tradition) in our season opener.
At –15 Days we were 1–1 (#4 Seed) || Packers were 1–1 (#4 Seed)
At –8 Days we were 1–2 (#13 Seed) || Packers were 2–1 (#4 Seed)
After losing to LAC in Week 4, from –7 Days on we were 1–3 (#14 Seed) as we welcomed the Packers who were 2–2 (#9 Seed), on MNF.
Week 6 vs. New England Patriots (2023 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 2–3, #13 Seed || Patriots: 1–4, #15 Seed
We had just beat the Packers on MNF! A much needed victory!
Notable Events:
This was the 2nd “McDaniels vs. Belichick” face-off in 12 months.
We won the last one, in Week 15 of 2022. Would McDaniels go up 2–0 against his former maestro?
Jimmy G was the starter again, but would he hold up? Brian Hoyer was back on deck as the backup now.
HYPE CHECK:
“Release” is the day the schedule released!
–15 Wks, –11 Wks & –6 Wks was 1, 2 & 3 months after schedule release.
As such, seedings were N/A yet.
–
At –4 Wks we were coming off having defeated DEN (as is tradition) in our season opener.
At –3 Wks we were 1–1 (#4 Seed) || Patriots were 0–2 (#12 Seed)
At –2 Wks we were 1–2 (#13 Seed) || Patriots were 1–2 (#8 Seed)
At –7 Days we were 1–3 (#14 Seed) || Patriots were 1–3 (#12 Seed)
After beating GB on MNF, from –6 Days on we were 2–3 (#13 Seed) as we took on the Patriots who were 1–4 (#15 Seed).
Week 9 vs. New York Giants (2023 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 3–5, #13 Seed || Giants: 2–6, #13 Seed
We had just lost to the Lions 6 days prior on MNF, who were now roaring at 6–2 after us.
Notable Events:
Josh McDaniels (HC), Dave Ziegler (GM), and Mick Lombardi (Asst. OC) were all FIRED 5 days before this game.
They were fired on Oct 31st, at approx. 10pm PT. Happy Halloween!
Antonio Pierce was named the Interim Head Coach, with Champ Kelly the Interim GM.
This would thus be Antonio Pierce’s 1st game as HC of the Raiders. He’d been the LB Coach prior.
Jimmy G’s outing last week vs. DET left everyone feeling incredibly down, and hopeless.
All he’d shown us this season was he couldn’t make a throw to save his life, he couldn’t read the field, he was skittish, he couldn’t stay healthy and yet he was the one our offense had been entrusted to. Defenses did not respect our passing game whatsoever.
Our only 7 offensive points vs. DET were from a drive where we simply rode Josh Jacobs the whole way down the field. Not sustainable.
Aidan O’Connell was officially named the team’s starting QB going forward. How would he fare vs. the NY Giants?
HYPE CHECK:
“Release” is the day the schedule released!
–15 Wks, –11 Wks & –6 Wks was 1, 2 & 3 months after schedule release.
As such, seedings were N/A yet.
–
At –7 Wks we were coming off having defeated DEN (as is tradition) in our season opener.
At –6 Wks we were 1–1 (#4 Seed) || Giants were 1–2 (#12 Seed)
At –5 Wks we were 1–2 (#13 Seed) || Giants were 1–2 (#8 Seed)
At –4 Wks we were 1–3 (#14 Seed) || Giants were 1–3 (#13 Seed)
At –19 Days we were 3–3 (#11 Seed) || Giants were 1–5 (#14 Seed)
At –2 Wks we were 3–3 (#11 Seed) || Giants were 1–5 (#14 Seed)
At –7 Days we were 3–4 (#12 Seed) || Giants were 2–5 (#13 Seed)
After losing to DET on MNF, from –5 Days on we were 3–5 (#13 Seed) as we took on the Giants who were 2–6 (#13 Seed).
Week 10 vs. New York Jets (2023 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 4–5, #13 Seed || Jets: 4–4, #11 Seed
We had just WHOOPED the Giants (30-6) in Antonio Pierce’s debut as HC.
Notable Events:
After utterly destroying the Giants in Antonio Pierce’s debut, fan morale was WAY up!
We had 8 Sacks, 26 Pressures, 2 Interceptions, Aidan O’Connell looked great, and our run game was eating!
Aidan O’Connell had impressed in his debut, and the autumn winds were blowing strong in this November slate!
HYPE CHECK:
“Release” is the day the schedule released!
–15 Wks, –11 Wks & –6 Wks was 1, 2 & 3 months after schedule release.
As such, seedings were N/A yet.
–
At –8 Wks we were coming off having defeated DEN (as is tradition) in our season opener.
At –7 Wks we were 1–1 (#4 Seed) || Jets were 1–1 (#6 Seed)
At –6 Wks we were 1–2 (#13 Seed) || Jets were 1–2 (#9 Seed)
At –5 Wks we were 1–3 (#14 Seed) || Jets were 1–3 (#13 Seed)
At –4 Wks we were 3–3 (#11 Seed) || Jets were 3–3 (#10 Seed)
At –3 Wks we were 3–3 (#11 Seed) || Jets were 3–3 (#10 Seed)
At –2 Wks we were 3–4 (#12 Seed) || Jets were 3–3 (#9 Seed)
At –7 Days we were 3–5 (#13 Seed) || Jets were 4–3 (#8 Seed)
After destroying the NYG, from –6 Days on we were 4–5 (#13 Seed) as we took on the Jets who were 4–4 (#11 Seed).
Week 12 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2023 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 5–6, #12 Seed || Chiefs: 7–3, #2 Seed
Since the NYG game, we’d beat the Jets next but now were coming off a close loss to the Dolphins.
Notable Events:
Though we’d lost to MIA 7 days prior to this game, we’d actually hung with them.
Despite getting turnovers, the problem was we could not score any points. The hope was that our offense would start to click.
Aidan O’Connell had now been our full-time starter for 3 games, after being suddenly thrust into the role. He’d been given virtually zero practice reps the entire time with McDaniels (both during the off-season, and in-season), so woes were to be expected.
Poor personnel decisions by McDaniels ultimately did him in, but AP hoped to right the ship.
HYPE CHECK:
“Release” is the day the schedule released!
–15 Wks, –11 Wks & –6 Wks was 1, 2 & 3 months after schedule release.
As such, seedings were N/A yet.
–
At –10 Wks we were coming off having defeated DEN (as is tradition) in our season opener.
At –9 Wks we were 1–1 (#4 Seed) || Chiefs were 1–1 (#7 Seed)
At –8 Wks we were 1–2 (#13 Seed) || Chiefs were 2–1 (#3 Seed)
At –7 Wks we were 1–3 (#14 Seed) || Chiefs were 3–1 (#1 Seed)
At –6 Wks we were 3–3 (#11 Seed) || Chiefs were 5–1 (#1 Seed)
At –5 Wks we were 3–3 (#11 Seed) || Chiefs were 5–1 (#1 Seed)
At –4 Wks we were 3–4 (#12 Seed) || Chiefs were 6–1 (#1 Seed)
At –3 Wks we were 3–5 (#13 Seed) || Chiefs were 6–2 (#1 Seed)
At –2 Wks we were 4–5 (#13 Seed) || Chiefs were 7–2 (#1 Seed)
At –7 Days we were 5–5 (#9 Seed) || Chiefs were 7–2 (#1 Seed)
After falling to MIA, from –5 Days on we were 5–6 (#12 Seed) as we took on the Chiefs who were 7–3 (#2 Seed) coming off a MNF loss.
Week 14 vs. Minnesota Vikings (2023 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 5–7, #13 Seed || Vikings: 6–6, #6 Seed
After losing to the Chiefs, both us and the Vikings were coming off a BYE.
Notable Events:
Prior to the BYE, we’d started strong vs. the Chiefs but then faded as the game went on.
Fans were starting to come back to earth after starting out 2–0 with Coach Pierce, and then 0–2 vs. MIA & KC.
With both us and the Vikings now coming off a BYE, this game would be a coaching staff showdown.
By this point, our team was showing signs of life, but our Offense would really need to start turning on.
Could Interim Offensive Coordinator Bo Hardegree cook up anything with 2 full weeks to prepare?
The Vikings had the 9th ranked Defense (by PPG) entering this game. But if you want to be an OC? Prove you can do it.
HYPE CHECK:
“Release” is the day the schedule released!
–15 Wks, –11 Wks & –6 Wks was 1, 2 & 3 months after schedule release.
As such, seedings were N/A yet.
–
At –12 Wks we were coming off having defeated DEN (as is tradition) in our season opener.
At –11 Wks we were 1–1 (#4 Seed) || Vikings were 0–2 (#15 Seed)
At –10 Wks we were 1–2 (#13 Seed) || Vikings were 0–3 (#16 Seed)
At –9 Wks we were 1–3 (#14 Seed) || Vikings were 1–3 (#12 Seed)
At –8 Wks we were 3–3 (#11 Seed) || Vikings were 2–4 (#12 Seed)
At –7 Wks we were 3–3 (#11 Seed) || Vikings were 2–4 (#12 Seed)
At –6 Wks we were 3–4 (#12 Seed) || Vikings were 3–4 (#7 Seed)
At –5 Wks we were 3–5 (#13 Seed) || Vikings were 4–4 (#7 Seed)
At –4 Wks we were 4–5 (#13 Seed) || Vikings were 5–4 (#7 Seed)
At –3 Wks we were 5–5 (#9 Seed) || Vikings were 6–4 (#7 Seed)
At –2 Wks we were 5–6 (#12 Seed) || Vikings were 6–5 (#6 Seed)
At –7 Days we were 5–7 (#12 Seed) || Vikings were 6–6 (#6 Seed)
With both us and MIN coming off a BYE, from –6 Days on we both maintained the above record & seeding.
Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2023 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 5–8, #13 Seed || Chargers: 5–8, #12 Seed
After somehow losing to the Vikings in a 3-0 slugfest just 4 days prior, we needed to exorcise some… things.
Notable Events:
Some offenses bring heavy artillery to a fight. We brought a broken slingshot to our game vs. MIN.
2 days prior to this TNF game vs. the Chargers, it was announced Justin Herbert’s season was over.
He had suffered a broken index finger in his throwing hand.
After faltering down the stretch, our season was effectively over as we’d need to win out (go 5–0) to likely secure a playoff spot.
In-turn, most fans had started to look toward the Draft. And the Chargers? Well their season was shot too.
With nothing on the line but pride, no offense to watch on either team, and this being a Thursday game… demand couldn’t be any lower.
Who would want to use 1-2 vacation days to watch an offense that’d just put up 0 points, battle against a now rudderless LAC squad?
HYPE CHECK:
“Release” is the day the schedule released!
–15 Wks, –11 Wks & –6 Wks was 1, 2 & 3 months after schedule release.
As such, seedings were N/A yet.
–
At –12.5 Wks we were coming off having defeated DEN (as is tradition) in our season opener.
At –11.5 Wks we were 1–1 (#4 Seed) || Chargers were 0–2 (#14 Seed)
At –10.5 Wks we were 1–2 (#13 Seed) || Chargers were 1–2 (#15 Seed)
At –9.5 Wks we were 1–3 (#14 Seed) || Chargers were 2–2 (#11 Seed)
At –8.5 Wks we were 3–3 (#11 Seed) || Chargers were 2–3 (#13 Seed)
At –7.5 Wks we were 3–3 (#11 Seed) || Chargers were 2–3 (#13 Seed)
At –6.5 Wks we were 3–4 (#12 Seed) || Chargers were 2–4 (#14 Seed)
At –5.5 Wks we were 3–5 (#13 Seed) || Chargers were 3–4 (#11 Seed)
At –4.5 Wks we were 4–5 (#13 Seed) || Chargers were 4–4 (#10 Seed)
At –3.5 Wks we were 5–5 (#9 Seed) || Chargers were 4–5 (#12 Seed)
At –2.5 Wks we were 5–6 (#12 Seed) || Chargers were 4–6 (#13 Seed)
At –1.5 Wks we were 5–7 (#12 Seed) || Chargers were 4–7 (#13 Seed)
At –7 Days we were 5–7 (#13 Seed) || Chargers were 5–7 (#12 Seed)
After getting shut out by MIN, from –3 Days on we were 5–8 (#13 Seed) as we rolled into TNF vs. the Chargers who were 5–8 (#12 Seed).
Week 18 vs. Denver Broncos (2023 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 7–9, #12 Seed || Broncos: 8–8, #10 Seed
After a late season resurgence, we’d just lost to IND in week 17 – officially ending our playoff hopes.
Notable Events:
The weekend prior to this game officially ended both ours and the Broncos’ playoff hopes.
It was now mathematically impossible to get in.
But is it even possible for the Las Vegas Raiders to lose to the Denver Broncos?
We entered this game undefeated (7-0) against them since moving to Vegas in 2020.
HYPE CHECK:
“Release” is the day the schedule released!
–15 Wks, –11 Wks & –6 Wks was 1, 2 & 3 months after schedule release.
As such, seedings were N/A yet.
–
At –16 Wks we were coming off having defeated DEN (as is tradition) in our season opener.
At –15 Wks we were 1–1 (#4 Seed) || Broncos were 0–2 (#13 Seed)
At –14 Wks we were 1–2 (#13 Seed) || Broncos were 0–3 (#16 Seed)
At –13 Wks we were 1–3 (#14 Seed) || Broncos were 1–3 (#16 Seed)
At –12 Wks we were 3–3 (#11 Seed) || Broncos were 1–5 (#16 Seed)
At –11 Wks we were 3–3 (#11 Seed) || Broncos were 1–5 (#16 Seed)
At –10 Wks we were 3–4 (#12 Seed) || Broncos were 2–5 (#16 Seed)
At –9 Wks we were 3–5 (#13 Seed) || Broncos were 3–5 (#15 Seed)
At –8 Wks we were 4–5 (#13 Seed) || Broncos were 3–5 (#15 Seed)
At –7 Wks we were 5–5 (#9 Seed) || Broncos were 4–5 (#14 Seed)
At –6 Wks we were 5–6 (#12 Seed) || Broncos were 5–5 (#10 Seed)
At –5 Wks we were 5–7 (#12 Seed) || Broncos were 6–5 (#9 Seed)
At –4 Wks we were 5–7 (#13 Seed) || Broncos were 6–6 (#9 Seed)
At –3 Wks we were 6–8 (#12 Seed) || Broncos were 7–6 (#9 Seed)
At –13 Days we were 6–8 (#12 Seed) || Broncos were 7–7 (#11 Seed)
At –7 Days we were 7–8 (#11 Seed) || Broncos were 7–8 (#12 Seed)
After losing to IND, from –6 Days on we were 7–9 (#12 Seed) as we took on the Broncos who were 8–8 (#10 Seed).
::: BONUS :::
Week 4 vs. Los Angeles Chargers AT SoFi Stadium (2023 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 1–2, #13 Seed || Chargers: 1–2, #15 Seed
We’d just lost to PIT, whose offense was not exactly loaded with talent.
Notable Events:
After losing to the.. Kenny Pickett led Steelers & already dropping to 1–2, fan morale was low.
Saturday at ~3pm (22 hrs before kickoff), Jimmy G was officially announced OUT (Concussion Protocol)
And so, just like that Aidan O’Connell was thrust into the Starting role.
Fortunately McDaniels had prepared him for this by giving him virtually zero reps all off-season. But 6 days oughta do it, right?
The team had somehow managed to keep his reps all week a secret, with Schefter breaking the news at 1:50am Sunday morning.
HYPE CHECK:
“Release” is the day the schedule released!
–15 Wks, –11 Wks & –6 Wks was 1, 2 & 3 months after schedule release.
As such, seedings were N/A yet.
–
At –2 Wks we were coming off having defeated DEN (as is tradition) in our season opener.
At –7 Days we were 1–1 (#4 Seed) || Chargers were 0–2 (#14 Seed)
After losing to PIT (and CIN leapfrogging LAC on MNF), from –5 Days on we were 1–2 (#13 Seed) as we took on the Chargers who were 1–2 (#15 Seed).
2022 Season
Week 2 vs. Arizona Cardinals (2022 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 0–1, #11 Seed || Cardinals: 0–1, #16 Seed
We had just lost to the Chargers
Notable Events:
This was the 1st Game at Allegiant Stadium of the Josh McDaniels & Dave Ziegler era.
HYPE CHECK:
I’ll be providing background (Record & Seed #s) for added context to show what effect “bigger picture” happenings have on ticket prices.
Heavyweight fights can be big ticket events that start to draw big crowds.
But will even these events drop significantly? Does it make any sense at all to buy them early? Will prices drop no matter what? What stops price drops?
From –4 Wks to –2 Wks the season hadn’t started yet, so seedings were N/A yet.
After losing to LAC, from –6 Days on we were 0–1 (#11 Seed) as we rolled in to face the Cardinals who were 0–1 (#16 Seed).
Week 4 vs. Denver Broncos (2022 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 0–3, #16 Seed || Broncos: 2–1, #5 Seed
We had just lost to the Titans
Notable Events:
The team was reeling after an 0–3 start & staring a cold historical fact in the face – since 1980 only 6 times had a team ever made the playoffs after starting 0–3. The copium flowed through the Nation though, with hope that the team just needed to find its footing first before hitting the gas in a completely new scheme on both Offense & Defense. The team also had 28 new players when the season started that weren’t here prior.
HYPE CHECK:
At –4 Wks the season hadn’t started yet.
At –3 Wks we were 0–1 (#11 Seed) || Broncos were 0–1 (#14 Seed)
At –13 Days we were 0–2 (#16 Seed) || Broncos were 1–1 (#10 Seed)
–1 Wk was just before our Week 3 game kicked off (to see a better before/after effect of the 0–3 stat). Records & seedings the same as above.
After losing to TEN in Week 3, from –6 Days on we were now 0–3 (#16 Seed) as we rolled in to face the Broncos who were 2–1 (#5 Seed).
Week 7 vs. Houston Texans (2022 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 1–4, #16 Seed || Texans: 1–3–1, #15 Seed
Coming off a BYE Week.
Prior to that we’d just lost to the Chiefs in Week 5.
Notable Events:
This game serves as an interesting insight into what a “Toilet Bowl” game yields on ticket prices. There couldn’t have been a less competitive game, with the #16 Seed facing off against the #15 Seed. The Texans were nearly void of talent across their whole team. Both teams ended up picking in the Top 7 of the NFL Draft.
__________
Game tickets actually ended up dropping to below face value, even after fees were included.
HYPE CHECK:
At –6 Wks we were 0–1 (#11 Seed) || Texans were 0–0–1 (#9 Seed)
At –5 Wks we were 0–2 (#16 Seed) || Texans were 0–1–1 (#12 Seed)
–4 Wks was just before our Week 3 game kicked off (to see a better before/after effect of the 0–3 stat). Records & seedings same as above.
At –3 Wks we were 0–3 (#16 Seed) || Texans were 0–2–1 (#15 Seed)
At –19 Days we were 1–3 (#13 Seed) || Texans were 0–3–1 (#16 Seed)
At –2 Wks we were 1–3 (#13 Seed) || Texans were 0–3–1 (#16 Seed)
Coming off our BYE Week, from –1 Wk on we were 1–4 (#16 Seed) as we rolled in to face the Texans who were 1–3–1 (#15 Seed).
Week 10 vs. Indianapolis Colts (2022 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 2–6, #14 Seed || Colts: 3–5–1, #10 Seed
We had just lost to the Jaguars, completely blowing the game.
Notable Events:
We had just blown the 3rd lead in the season of 17 or more points, against the Jaguars 7 days before this game.
At –6 Days from the game, the Colts HC Frank Reich was fired and replaced with Jeff Saturday, who’d never coached a game at any level.
At –3 Days, questions on if we were tanking came to the foreground as Blake Martinez suddenly retired out of nowhere and the team placed both Hunter Renfrow AND Darren Waller on Injured Reserve, guaranteeing we’d be without them for at least another 4 games.. two of which were against Divisional opponents.
HYPE CHECK:
At –9 Wks we were 0–1 (#11 Seed) || Colts were 0–0–1 (#9 Seed)
At –8 Wks we were 0–2 (#16 Seed) || Colts were 0–1–1 (#13 Seed)
At – 7 Wks we were 0–3 (#16 Seed) || Colts were 1–1–1 (#8 Seed)
–6 Wks was just before our Week 4 game kicked off (to see the effect a Win would have after starting 0–3). Records & seedings same as above.
At –5 Wks we were 1–3 (#13 Seed) || Colts were 1–2–1 (#12 Seed)
At –4 Wks we were 1–4 (#15 Seed) || Colts were 2–2–1 (#8 Seed)
At –3 Wks we were 2–4 (#11 Seed) || Colts were 3–3–1 (#9 Seed)
At –2 Wks we were 2–5 (#13 Seed) || Colts were 3–4–1 (#10 Seed)
After losing to weak NO (shut out 24-0), from –1 Week on we were 2–6 (#14 Seed) as we rolled in to face the Colts who were 3–5–1 (#10 Seed).
Week 13 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2022 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 4–7, #12 Seed || Chargers: 6–5, #9 Seed
We had just beat the Seahawks, in an epic overtime finish.
Notable Events:
We had been picking up steam in recent weeks, and had just won a big shootout against the hot Seahawks, walking away with a 40-34 win in OT as Josh Jacobs blasted off a huge 86 yard run to stun the Seattle crowd.
HYPE CHECK:
At –12 Wks we were 0–1 (#11 Seed) || Chargers were 1–0 (#2 Seed)
At –11 Wks we were 0–2 (#16 Seed) || Chargers were 1–1 (#9 Seed)
At – 10 Wks we were 0–3 (#16 Seed) || Chargers were 1–2 (#14 Seed)
–9 Wks was just before our Week 4 game kicked off (to see the effect a Win would have after starting 0–3). Records & seedings same as above.
At –8 Wks we were 1–3 (#13 Seed) || Chargers were 2–2 (#10 Seed)
At –7 Wks we were 1–4 (#15 Seed) || Chargers were 3–2 (#7 Seed)
At –6 Wks we were 2–4 (#11 Seed) || Chargers were 4–3 (#7 Seed)
At –5 Wks we were 2–5 (#13 Seed) || Chargers were 4–3 (#7 Seed)
At –4 Wks we were 2–6 (#14 Seed) || Chargers were 5–3 (#7 Seed)
At –3 Wks we were 2–7 (#15 Seed) || Chargers were 5–4 (#8 Seed)
At –2 Wks we were 3–7 (#12 Seed) || Chargers were 5–5 (#9 Seed)
–1 Wk was grabbed before our Week 12 game vs SEA finished, to again see what a Win could do. Records & seedings same as above.
After beating SEA, from –6 Days on we were 4–7 (#12 Seed) as we rolled in to face the Chargers who were 6–5 (#9 Seed).
Week 15 vs. New England Patriots (2022 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 5–8, #12 Seed || Patriots: 7–6, #7 Seed
We had just somehow lost to the Rams
Notable Events:
Just the week before, we’d managed to somehow lose to the Rams who’d barely picked up Baker Mayfield 2 days before playing us. By this point in the season, utterly embarrassing collapses had become way too normalized. Our Silver & Black souls had started to callus.
HYPE CHECK:
At –14 Wks we were 0–1 (#11 Seed) || Patriots were 0–1 (#12 Seed)
At –13 Wks we were 0–2 (#16 Seed) || Patriots were 1–1 (#7 Seed)
At – 12 Wks we were 0–3 (#16 Seed) || Patriots were 1–2 (#10 Seed)
–11 Wks was just before our Week 4 game kicked off (to see the effect a Win would have after starting 0–3). Records & seedings same as above.
At –10 Wks we were 1–3 (#13 Seed) || Patriots were 1–3 (#14 Seed)
At –9 Wks we were 1–4 (#15 Seed) || Patriots were 2–3 (#11 Seed)
At –8 Wks we were 2–4 (#11 Seed) || Patriots were 3–4 (#10 Seed)
At –7 Wks we were 2–5 (#13 Seed) || Patriots were 4–4 (#8 Seed)
At –6 Wks we were 2–6 (#14 Seed) || Patriots were 5–4 (#8 Seed)
At –5 Wks we were 2–7 (#15 Seed) || Patriots were 5–4 (#7 Seed)
At –4 Wks we were 3–7 (#12 Seed) || Patriots were 6–4 (#6 Seed)
At –3 Wks we were 4–7 (#12 Seed) || Patriots were 6–5 (#8 Seed)
At –2 Wks we were 5–7 (#10 Seed) || Patriots were 6–6 (#8 Seed)
After somehow losing to LAR, from –6 Days on we were 5–8 (#11 Seed) as we rolled in to face the Patriots who were 7–6 (#7 Seed).
Week 17 vs. San Francisco 49ers (2022 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 6–9, #12 Seed || 49ers: 11–4, #3 Seed
We had now just somehow lost to the Steelers.
Notable Events:
The “Battle of the Bay!”
At –4 Days we’d benched Derek Carr.
The overwhelming sentiment was we were just phoning it in now, and not even trying anymore.
HYPE CHECK:
At –16 Wks we were 0–1 (#11 Seed) || 49ers were 0–1 (#10 Seed)
At –15 Wks we were 0–2 (#16 Seed) || 49ers were 1–1 (#4 Seed)
At – 14 Wks we were 0–3 (#16 Seed) || 49ers were 1–2 (#9 Seed)
–13 Wks was just before our Week 4 game kicked off (to see the effect a Win would have after starting 0–3). Records & seedings same as above.
At –12 Wks we were 1–3 (#13 Seed) || 49ers were 2–2 (#4 Seed)
At –11 Wks we were 1–4 (#15 Seed) || 49ers were 3–2 (#4 Seed)
At –10 Wks we were 2–4 (#11 Seed) || 49ers were 3–4 (#8 Seed)
At –9 Wks we were 2–5 (#13 Seed) || 49ers were 4–4 (#7 Seed)
At –8 Wks we were 2–6 (#14 Seed) || 49ers were 4–4 (#7 Seed)
At –7 Wks we were 2–7 (#15 Seed) || 49ers were 5–4 (#7 Seed)
At –6 Wks we were 3–7 (#12 Seed) || 49ers were 6–4 (#3 Seed)
At –5 Wks we were 4–7 (#12 Seed) || 49ers were 7–4 (#3 Seed)
At –4 Wks we were 5–7 (#10 Seed) || 49ers were 8–4 (#3 Seed)
At –3 Wks we were 5–8 (#11 Seed) || 49ers were 9–4 (#3 Seed)
At –2 Wks we were 6–8 (#11 Seed) || 49ers were 10–4 (#3 Seed)
After somehow losing to PIT, from –6 Days on we were 6–9 (#12 Seed) as we rolled in to face the 49ers who were 11–4 (#3 Seed).
Week 18 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2022 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 6–10, #13 Seed || Chiefs: 13–3, #1 Seed
We had just lost to the 49ers
Notable Events:
At –10 Days we’d benched Derek Carr that morning, about 8 hrs prior.
At –5 Days our playoff hopes – which would’ve required an insane series of luck – were officially over after losing to SF.
HYPE CHECK:
At –17 Wks we were 0–1 (#11 Seed) || Chiefs were 1–0 (#6 Seed)
At –16 Wks we were 0–2 (#16 Seed) || Chiefs were 2–0 (#4 Seed)
At – 15 Wks we were 0–3 (#16 Seed) || Chiefs were 2–1 (#3 Seed)
–14 Wks was just before our Week 4 game kicked off (to see the effect a Win would have after starting 0–3). Records & seedings same as above.
At –13 Wks we were 1–3 (#13 Seed) || Chiefs were 3–1 (#2 Seed)
At –12 Wks we were 1–4 (#15 Seed) || Chiefs were 4–1 (#2 Seed)
At –11 Wks we were 2–4 (#11 Seed) || Chiefs were 5–2 (#2 Seed)
At –10 Wks we were 2–5 (#13 Seed) || Chiefs were 5–2 (#3 Seed)
At –9 Wks we were 2–6 (#14 Seed) || Chiefs were 6–2 (#2 Seed)
At –8 Wks we were 2–7 (#15 Seed) || Chiefs were 7–2 (#1 Seed)
At –7 Wks we were 3–7 (#12 Seed) || Chiefs were 8–2 (#1 Seed)
At –6 Wks we were 4–7 (#12 Seed) || Chiefs were 9–2 (#1 Seed)
At –5 Wks we were 5–7 (#10 Seed) || Chiefs were 9–3 (#2 Seed)
At –4 Wks we were 5–8 (#11 Seed) || Chiefs were 10–3 (#2 Seed)
At –3 Wks we were 6–8 (#11 Seed) || Chiefs were 11–3 (#2 Seed)
At –2 Wks we were 6–9 (#12 Seed) || Chiefs were 12–3 (#2 Seed)
At –10 Days we’d benched Carr that morning, about 8 hrs prior.
At –8 Days it’d been 48 hrs since Carr was benched. This was grabbed to see the impact emotions have on price drops, and how much (& when) prices rebound.
After losing to SF, from –5 Days on our last playoff hopes were officially over and we were 6–10 (#13 Seed) as we went to face the Chiefs (13–3, #1 Seed).
::: BONUS :::
Week 1 vs. Los Angeles Chargers AT SoFi Stadium (2022 Season)
Entering the Game:
This was the Season Opener and as such, neither team had a record nor seeding.
TIP:
In researching Chargers tickets for SoFi Stadium, I discovered a pricing loophole that some fans are aware of. For whatever reason, if you visit Ticketmaster through the link on the Chargers website, the prices on tickets are lower.
On investigating this, I resolved that there are 2 specific URL parameters that are needed to trigger the price drop:
you need the “&brand=” parameter, and the “&artistid=” parameter.
The “&artistid=” needs set equal to the Chargers’ ID (806013 when I investigated)
The “&brand=” field appears to affect the styling of the page, but for some reason is required to ‘lock in’ the lower prices.
While the artistid field has to be set to the Chargers’, the brand field for whatever reason does not – but it does need to be in the URL.
None of the other 7+ fields in the URL are needed.
HYPE CHECK:
As this was the Season Opener, every single check occurred before either team had any record or seeding.
2021 Season
Week 5 vs. Chicago Bears (2021 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 3–1, #5 Seed || Bears: 2–2, #8 Seed
Had just lost to the Chargers
Notable Events:
Entering the game, the Gruden emails had just come to light. We were looking very hot, having already knocked off 3 teams that’d been in the playoffs the year before. Not long after this game, Gruden resigned. Questions abound on how distracted the team & coaches were.
HYPE CHECK:
At –8 Days we were the #1 Seed. After losing to LAC, from –5 Days on we were the #5 Seed.
Week 7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2021 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 4–2, #6 Seed || Eagles: 2–4, #13 Seed
We had just beat the Broncos
Notable Events:
This ended up being the last game Henry Ruggs played as a Raider.
At –12 Days, Gruden had resigned the night before.
HYPE CHECK:
At –22 Days we were 3–0 (#1 Seed) || Eagles were 1–2 (#10 Seed)
At –19 Days we were 3–1 (#5 Seed) || Eagles were 1–3 (#13 Seed)
At –12 Days we were 3–2 (#6 Seed) || Eagles were 2–3 (#11 Seed)
After beating DEN, from –6 Days on we were 4–2 (#6 Seed) as we rolled in to face the Eagles who were 2–4 (#13 Seed).
Week 10 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2021 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 5–3, #5 Seed || Chiefs: 5–4, #8 Seed
Coming off a BYE Week.
Prior to that we’d lost to the Giants. Patrick Graham’s defense had stifled us, though we were now in a freefall without Ruggs.
Notable Events:
At –33 Days, Gruden had resigned the night before.
At –11 Days, Henry Ruggs was no longer part of the team (released the day before).
At –5 Days, Damon Arnette was also no longer part of the team (released the day before).
HYPE CHECK:
At –43 Days we were 3–0 (#1 Seed) || Chiefs were 1–2 (#11 Seed)
At –40 Days we were 3–1 (#5 Seed) || Chiefs were 2–2 (#9 Seed)
At –33 Days we were 3–2 (#6 Seed) || Chiefs were 2–3 (#11 Seed)
At –27 Days we were 4–2 (#6 Seed) || Chiefs were 3–3 (#9 Seed)
At –20 Days we were 5–2 (#2 Seed) || Chiefs were 3–4 (#11 Seed)
At –11 Days we were 5–2 (#2 Seed) || Chiefs were 4–4 (#9 Seed)
After losing to NYG, from –5 Days on we were 5–3 (#5 Seed) as we rolled in to face the Chiefs who were 5–4 (#8 Seed).
Week 11 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (2021 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 5–4, #8 Seed || Bengals: 5–4, #9 Seed
Had just lost to the Chiefs.
Notable Events:
At –40 Days, Gruden had resigned the night before.
At –18 Days, Henry Ruggs was no longer on the team (released day before).
At –6 Days, Damon Arnette was also no longer on the team (released week before).
HYPE CHECK:
At –50 Days we were 3–0 (#1 Seed) || Bengals were 2–1 (#2 Seed)
At –47 Days we were 3–1 (#5 Seed) || Bengals were 3–1 (#2 Seed)
At –40 Days we were 3–2 (#6 Seed) || Bengals were 3–2 (#5 Seed)
At –34 Days we were 4–2 (#6 Seed) || Bengals were 4–2 (#5 Seed)
At –27 Days we were 5–2 (#2 Seed) || Bengals were 5–2 (#1 Seed)
At –18 Days we were 5–2 (#2 Seed) || Bengals were 5–3 (#5 Seed)
After losing to KC, from –6 Days on we were 5–4 (#8 Seed) as we rolled in to face the Bengals who were 5–4 (#9 Seed).
Week 13 vs. Washington Commanders (2021 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 6–5, #8 Seed || Commanders: 5–6, #7 Seed
Had just beat the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
Notable Events:
At –54 Days, Gruden had resigned the night before.
At –32 Days, Henry Ruggs was no longer on the team (released day before).
At –20 Days, Damon Arnette was also no longer on the team (released week before).
HYPE CHECK:
At –64 Days we were 3–0 (#1 Seed) || Commanders were 1–2 (#9 Seed)
At –61 Days we were 3–1 (#5 Seed) || Commanders were 2–2 (#7 Seed)
At –54 Days we were 3–2 (#6 Seed) || Commanders were 2–3 (#9 Seed)
At –48 Days we were 4–2 (#6 Seed) || Commanders were 2–4 (#12 Seed)
At –41 Days we were 5–2 (#2 Seed) || Commanders were 2–5 (#12 Seed)
At –32 Days we were 5–2 (#2 Seed) || Commanders were 2–6 (#14 Seed)
At –20 Days we were 5–4 (#8 Seed) || Commanders were 3–6 (#12 Seed)
At –10 Days we were 5–5 (#11 Seed) || Commanders were 4–6 (#11 Seed)
After beating DAL, from –3 Days on we were 6–5 (#8 Seed) as we rolled in to face the Commanders who were 5–6 (#7 Seed).
Week 16 vs. Denver Broncos (2021 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 7–7, #10 Seed || Broncos: 7–7, #13 Seed
Sentiment was we’d blown our playoff chances. But… we’d just beat the Browns.
Notable Events:
At –75 Days, Gruden had resigned the night before.
At –53 Days, Henry Ruggs was no longer on the team (released day before).
At –41 Days, Damon Arnette was also no longer on the team (released week before).
HYPE CHECK:
At –85 Days we were 3–0 (#1 Seed) || Broncos were 3–0 (#5 Seed)
At –82 Days we were 3–1 (#5 Seed) || Broncos were 3–1 (#7 Seed)
At –75 Days we were 3–2 (#6 Seed) || Broncos were 3–2 (#7 Seed)
At –69 Days we were 4–2 (#6 Seed) || Broncos were 3–3 (#8 Seed)
At –62 Days we were 5–2 (#2 Seed) || Broncos were 3–4 (#12 Seed)
At –53 Days we were 5–2 (#2 Seed) || Broncos were 4–4 (#11 Seed)
At –41 Days we were 5–4 (#8 Seed) || Broncos were 5–5 (#12 Seed)
At –31 Days we were 5–5 (#11 Seed) || Broncos were 5–5 (#12 Seed)
At –24 Days we were 6–5 (#8 Seed) || Broncos were 6–5 (#9 Seed)
At –10 Days we were 6–7 (#12 Seed) || Broncos were 7–6 (#10 Seed)
After beating CLE, from –4 Days on we were 7–7 (#10 Seed) as we rolled in to face the Broncos who were 7–7 (#13 Seed).
Week 18 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2021 Season)
Entering the Game:
Raiders: 9–7, #8 Seed || Chargers: 9–7, #7 Seed
HOLY SMOKES if we win this game, we’re in the Playoffs!!
Notable Events:
3 weeks before, the sentiment was we’d likely blown the playoffs as we stood at 6–7 & the #12 Seed.
The 3 weeks that followed were a symbolic, epic roar for the season, as we steadily knocked teams out of the playoffs to give us a shot.
At –89 Days, Gruden had resigned the night before.
At –67 Days, Henry Ruggs was no longer on the team (released day before).
At –55 Days, Damon Arnette was also no longer on the team (released week before).
This game’s data gives unique insight into scalpers’ minds.
You’ll note two entries for –7 Days:
–7 Days (pre-) = ticket costs 15 mins before kickoff to the prior week’s game (where if we won, this game became a playoff game).
–7 Days (after) = ticket costs 8 hrs after winning that prior week’s game (where now, this game has become a playoff game).
The prices shot up BIG time!
HYPE CHECK:
At –99 Days we were 3–0 (#1 Seed) || Chargers were 2–1 (#6 Seed)
At –96 Days we were 3–1 (#5 Seed) || Chargers were 3–1 (#1 Seed)
At –89 Days we were 3–2 (#6 Seed) || Chargers were 4–1 (#1 Seed)
At –83 Days we were 4–2 (#6 Seed) || Chargers were 4–2 (#2 Seed)
At –76 Days we were 5–2 (#2 Seed) || Chargers were 4–2 (#6 Seed)
At –67 Days we were 5–2 (#2 Seed) || Chargers were 4–3 (#7 Seed)
At –55 Days we were 5–4 (#8 Seed) || Chargers were 5–4 (#7 Seed)
At –45 Days we were 5–5 (#11 Seed) || Chargers were 6–4 (#6 Seed)
At –38 Days we were 6–5 (#8 Seed) || Chargers were 6–5 (#7 Seed)
At –24 Days we were 6–7 (#12 Seed) || Chargers were 8–5 (#5 Seed)
At –18 Days we were 7–7 (#10 Seed) || Chargers were 8–6 (#6 Seed)
At –8 Days and –7 Days (pre-) we were 8–7 (#10 Seed) || Chargers were 8–7 (#9 Seed)
After beating IND, from “–7 Days (after)” on we were 9–7 (#8 Seed) as we rolled in to face the Chargers who were 9–7 (#7 Seed).
PLAYOFFS ON THE LINE!!
CLOSING WORDS:
It appears that Thursdays are where the real sweet spot begins.
Under NO circumstances should you ever buy your tickets to a game far ahead of the game.
Instead, book your flight & hotel and then simply purchase your game ticket as you enter the “sweet spot” period for game tickets.
There are literally hundreds upon hundreds of pairs of tickets available even just hours before a game starts.
I’ve personally done this for every game I’ve attended, and precisely 100% of the time, I end up sitting next to people that paid more for just 1 of their tickets than I did for my entire party. In 2021 for example, when I went to the Week 3 MIA game, I sat next to a pair of friends who’d unfortunately spent more on each of their tickets than I could’ve bought 5 of mine for – why? Because they bought their tickets way too early, acting on emotion & paranoia that they wouldn’t be available.
When the Ravens tickets in 2021 first became available when the season schedule was released, there were people that spent literally thousands of dollars on their tickets. Tickets that later ended up selling for only ~$200 – a huge difference in cost. The fans that were smarter with their money had thousands leftover to freely spend on vacations, flights, cruises, or just good times with friends & family. That cash savings could host some pretty epic barbecues on game day.
Don’t be afraid of people buying these out. As I’ve seen, there are simply way too many scalpers and pseudo-fans that have no interest in actually attending games. And out-of-town ticketholders may only intend to attend 2-4 games a season, meaning they’re selling 5-7 games every season. And each of these individuals picks different games to attend & sell. Even if only 1% of ticketholders were selling their seats as game week arrives, that’d still be 650 seats available to purchase.
Even if we look at the price drop from weeks out to days out, we can see in the data above price drops that routinely hit up to 60% decreases in cost. And that’s only from within the season. The further you zoom out – such as to many months out – and the cost decreases are staggering.
Be patient, don’t worry, and let the benefits of the practices revealed in this breakdown let the good times come, and let the good times roll.