Contract Breakdowns:
Raiders Edition

 
NFL Contracts are often misleading.
The numbers advertised often don’t end up actually being what a player will receive.
And so, in this breakdown we’ll look at ALL major contracts of $2.25M or more per year (1% of the Salary Cap), and reveal what the actual numbers are. 

For each player we’ll look right through the agent fluff & BS to reveal what the actual scenarios are based on the contract structure.
A lot of agents love to fluff up the numbers – but we want the actual story, and so that’s what we’re going to unveil.
How much will we actually pay each player, and what are our options?

If there’s a contract around the league you’d like broken down, or for any cap questions, feel free to shoot a message to: [email protected]

    
T
ABLE OCONTENTS
:
(alphabetical order, by last name)

Davante Adams
“5 years, $140.0 Million”
(ages: 29, 30, 31, 32 & 33)

 

          Scenario 1:   The Most Likely Scenario
We move on after 3 Seasons (in 2025). Our cost would’ve then been:
        3 years @ $17.4M/yr
– If we then Cut OR Trade him: we’d lose $15.70M in Dead Cap  but  would create +$28.40M in 2025 cap space (and +$44.10M in 2026 cap space).
   ›› If traded, his new team’s cost for 2025 and 2026 would be $36.25M each year – a huge hit to take on for an age 32 & 33 Receiver.
– A Post June-1 designation in 2025 is not reasonable as we’d need to hold a massive $44.10M cap hit until June 2nd. 
   ›› This is bad because then this money’s not available to be spent on new players, and $44.10M can get you a lot of help in Free Agency.
– Moving on after 3 seasons lets us avoid massive cap hits of $44.10M in both 2025 and 2026.
– Our analysis on Dead Caps that teams take on gives us insight into how likely such a move is:
   • $15.7M in 2025 is expected to be ~6.12% of the salary cap (assuming the cap growth rate continues as it has since 2014).
   • from 2018–2022 (5 Seasons), 18.5% of all dead cap transactions of ≥ 2.5% of the salary cap were at least this large. So, not unreasonable.
   • this reveals that about 1 in 5 dead cap transactions every year are for proportions this large.

          Scenario 2:
We move on after 4 Seasons (in 2026). This will most likely require a restructure.
If we assume we clear $10M in 2025 via restructure, our cost would’ve then been:
        4 years @ $21.6M/yr
– This scenario hinges on whether Davante is still playing at an Elite level at age 32 to justify a $34.1M cap hit in 2025 under this scenario.
   ›› This would be the equivalent of a ~$27.7M cap hit in the 2022 season, assuming cap inflation continues at the same rate since 2014.
– After 4 seasons, if we then Cut OR Trade him: we’d lose $17.85M in 2026 Dead Cap  but  would create +$26.25M in 2026 cap space.

          Scenario 3:
   Plays out full contract. This would most likely require multiple restructures.
If we assume we clear $16.0M in 2025 and another $16.0M in 2026 via max restructures, our cost would’ve then been:
        5 years @ $23.6M/yr
– This scenario depends on if he’s still playing at an Elite level at ages 32 & 33 to justify $31.3M & $34.5M cap hits in 2025 & 2026 under this scenario.
   ›› The 2025 cap hit ($31.3M) would be equivalent to a ~$25.4M cap hit in the 2022 season, assuming the 2014-2022 cap inflation rate continues.
   ›› The 2026 cap hit ($34.5M) would be equivalent to a ~$26.2M cap hit in the 2022 season, assuming the 2014-2022 cap inflation rate continues.
– After his contract expires, we would have a $22.4M Dead Cap hit in 2027.
   ›› This 2027 dead cap hit would be equivalent to a ~$24.5M cap hit in the 2022 season, assuming the 2014-2022 cap inflation rate continues.
– Our analysis on Dead Caps gives us insight into how likely such a move is:
   • $22.4M in 2027 is expected to be ~7.64% of the salary cap, assuming the 2014-2022 cap inflation rate continues.
   • from 2018–2022 (5 Seasons), 10.7% of all dead cap transactions of ≥ 2.5% of the salary cap were at least this large.
   • from 2018–2022, about 1 in 9 dead cap transactions every year are for proportions this large. Not unheard of.

SUMMARY:
The largest non-Quarterback cap hit ever recorded was $32.26M (Leonard Williams, NYG in 2023), so expecting the Raiders to take on a $44.10M cap hit not once, but twice is absurd. As such, it’d be expected that the team moves on after 3 seasons with the Silver & Black. 

Davante Adams is a tactician though – an Elite receiver who got to the peak of his position through skill & intelligence beyond just his physical talents. The relevance of this is that technically sound receivers like Adams tend to be the ones that age the best in the NFL, enjoying primes that extend past the age 28-29 that’s normally the limit for his position

Because of this, it’s entirely possible that he ends up playing with us for 4 seasons (Scenario #2), and as a matter of respect, possibly even 5 seasons (Scenario #3). We’ve analyzed realistic ways to make such scenarios possible and, as you can see, if he’s able to maintain his dominance he could cap his career in the Silver & Black in epic fashion. No bust in Canton will have ever rocked the dreads so cleanly.

Brandon Bolden
“2 years, $5.0 Million”
(ages: 32 & 33)

 

          Scenario 1:
   We move on after 1 year (in 2023). Our cost would’ve then been:
        1 year @ $2.1 Million
– If we Cut him (trade unlikely due to age): we’d only lose $0.6M in 2023 Dead Cap  but  would create +$2.20M in 2023 cap space.

          Scenario 2:
   Plays out full contract, 2 years @ $2.5M/yr

SUMMARY:
Given his advanced age (and at the RB position no less), the best scenario would be to move on after 1 year. Especially considering how many RBs are on-staff, it makes little sense to roster a player this old beyond the first year, when his knowledge in the system can have already been relayed to the younger players. With 47.4% of his contract fully guaranteed, no scenario would have him cut in his first training camp before playing a snap with us. He’d get at least 1 season.

Daniel Carlson
“4 years, $18.4 Million”
(ages: 27, 28, 29 & 30)

 

          Scenario 1:
   We move on after 3 seasons (in 2025). Our cost would’ve then been:
        3 years @ $4.4 Million/yr
– If we Cut him: we’d only lose $0.8M in 2025 Dead Cap  but  would create +$4.35M in 2025 cap space.

          Scenario 2:
Plays out full contract, 4 years @ $4.6M/yr

SUMMARY:
While we could technically move on after 2 years (after 2023) for just $1.6M in Dead Cap, because he’s a Special Teams player he’d have to have a very bad year to justify that. Generally, teams are really hesitant to waste dead cap on special teamers. That $1.6M Dead Cap hit would be larger than 96.4% of all dead cap hits taken on by teams for a Kicker from 2018–2022 (5 seasons) — so, unlikely.

Daniel Carlson’s earned the nickname “The Swedish Sniper” – and as such, the 2x All-Pro would be expected to finish out his contract with us. And since Kickers enjoy longer careers, assuming his accuracy doesn’t fall off there’s not as many grounds to hesitate giving him another contract.

AJ Cole
“4 years, $12.0 Million”
(ages: 26, 27, 28 & 29)

 

          Scenario 1:
   We move on after 2 seasons (in 2024). Our cost would’ve then been:
        2 years @ $2.3 Million/yr
– If we Cut him: we’d only lose $0.8M in 2024 Dead Cap  but  would create +$2.62M in 2024 cap space.

          Scenario 2:
   We move on after 3 seasons (in 2025). Our cost would’ve then been:
        2 years @ $2.3 Million/yr
– If we Cut him: we’d only lose $0.4M in 2025 Dead Cap  but  would create +$3.33M in 2025 cap space.

          Scenario 2:
Plays out full contract, 4 years @ $3.0M/yr

SUMMARY:
With the way AJ Cole’s contract was structured, he’s really mainly protected for the first 2 seasons. After that (Scenarios 1 & 2), if his performance falls off or the team ends up really pressed for cap space, there are technically options available. 

That said, AJ Cole – much like Daniel Carlson – has been a beloved special teams player. An All-Pro Punter (and 2x Pro Bowler), it would seem to require something drastic to happen for him to not play out his contract. Also, nobody chows down hot dogs or gives better high fives at the Pro Bowl than AJ Cole.

Maxx Crosby
“4 years, $94.0 Million”
(ages: 26, 27, 28 & 29)


Maxx Crosby’s contract was an extension off of his rookie contract. Despite that however, hardly any money was actually pulled forward to reduce later cap hits.
In total only $2,496,000 out of the $94,000,000 was pulled forward (onto 2022’s cap number) – barely 2.7% of the total contract value.

As such, it wouldn’t make sense to pretend the team “stretched” his cap hits out over an additional year. Generally speaking, if 1/2 the APY was not pulled forward, we do not consider it a fair reflection to say a contract cost was spread out. In Kolton Miller’s case, a whole 84.0% of his $18.0M APY was pulled forward (exceeding the 1/2 threshold) and, as such, it’s fair to say the team actually stretched his cap hits out as it took significant amounts of later cap hits off the books (almost a whole year’s APY #).

Upon reflection, the reason the team likely did not pull much forward in Crosby’s contract (as with Renfrow) was because in the same off-season he got his extension, the team had to also budget for: Davante Adams, Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller’s extensions. As such, because of the unfortunate timing, it just wasn’t very feasible to pull much money forward. And so, Crosby’s breakdown will match exactly what was advertised: a 4 year, $94.0M contract.

 

          Scenario 1:
   We move on after 2 seasons (in 2025). Our cost would’ve then been:
        2 years @ $18.7 Million/yr
– If we Cut OR Trade him: we’d only lose $10.3M in 2025 Dead Cap  but  would create +$16.81M in 2025 cap space.
   ›› If traded, his new team’s cost would only be $21.9M in both 2025 and 2026.
– Our analysis on Dead Caps gives us insight into how much resistance teams have to such a move:
   • $10.3M in 2025 is expected to be ~3.98% of the salary cap, assuming the 2014-2022 cap inflation rate continues.
   • from 2018–2022 (5 Seasons), a whopping 48.2% of all dead cap transactions ≥ 2.5% of the salary cap were at least this large.
   • from 2018–2022, there’ve been 16.2 dead cap transactions every year for proportions this large. Certainly not unusual.

          Scenario 2:
   We move on after 3 seasons (in 2026). Our cost would’ve then been:
        3 years @ $21.5 Million/yr
– If we Cut OR Trade him: we’d only lose $5.1M in 2026 Dead Cap  but  would create +$21.92M in 2026 cap space.
   ›› If traded, his new team’s cost would only be $21.9M in 2026.
– Our analysis on Dead Caps gives us insight into how much resistance teams have to such a move:
   • $5.1M in 2026 is expected to be ~1.86% of the salary cap, assuming the 2014-2022 cap inflation rate continues.
   • from 2018–2022, there’ve been 51.4 dead cap transactions every year for proportions this large (≥ 1.86%). Very common!

          Scenario 3:
Plays out full contract, 4 years @ $23.5M/yr

SUMMARY:
Maxx Crosby’s contract is actually very reasonable – the All-Pro Defensive End secured a big bag without being so greedy that you can’t build a team around him. His most expensive cap years (2025 & 2026), his cap hit of $27.0M both years are equivalent to only $21.9M & $20.5M in 2022 cap dollars (assuming the 2014-2022 cap inflation rate continues). As such, it’d be expected he plays out his contract in the Silver & Black as the man with a nuclear reactor in his chest continues to build toward a Hall of Fame resume.

Jermaine Eluemunor
“1 year, $3.0 Million”
 (ages: 28)
 

 

SUMMARY:
This one’s only a 1 year contract, so there’s not much to say but if he doesn’t look good in camp he’s still likely to be with us for 2023 as it’d cost $2.35M to release him (while only saving $0.6M). That said, as he’ll be just 29 years old after his year with us, he’s incentivized to play well so that he can parlay it into a bigger $$ deal.

Marcus Epps
“2 years, $12.0 Million”
 (ages: 27 & 28)
 

 

          Scenario 1:
We move on after 1 year (in 2024). Our cost would’ve then been:
        1 year @ $4.7 Million
– IF we then Cut him: we’d take $3.9M in 2024 Dead Cap  but  would create +$3.4M in 2024 cap space
– IF we then Trade him: we’d take $1.3M in in 2024 Dead Cap  but  would create +$6.0M in 2024 cap space
– His new team’s cost for 2024 would only be $6.0M.

          Scenario 2:
Plays out full contract, 2 years @ $6.0M/yr

SUMMARY:
Low risk contract! Cheap. Easy, low cost out if doesn’t perform. Incentivized to perform (low dead cap + would still be young enough (29 y/o) to get another contract).

Brandon Facyson

“2 years, $6.5 Million”
 (ages: 29 & 30)
 

 

          Scenario 1:
He performs very poorly in camp (in 2023).
If so, he can be cut for barely $700k Dead Cap before even playing a snap (while freeing up +$2.1M in 2023 cap space).

          Scenario 2:
We move on after 1 year (in 2024). Our cost would’ve then been:
   1 year @ $2.8 Million
– IF we then Cut OR Trade him: we’d only lose $0.35M in 2024 Dead Cap  but  would create +$3.25M in 2024 cap space

SUMMARY:
He’s not super incentivized to set up his next contract as he’d be 31 y/o in his 1st season with that new team (can’t expect this). However, given our low risk he’d want to play well to earn every last cent of the final “big” money he’s likely to receive.

Jimmy Garoppolo

“3 years, $72.75 Million”
(ages: 31, 32 & 33)
 


UPDATE #1: In late May 2023 it was revealed Jimmy’s contract was not structured as initially reported.
There is a conditional injury clause (“Addendum G“) in it which has cap implications.
His contract has been re-analyzed, and his scenarios have been updated.
For comparison of his contract before & after being re-worked, original terms no longer applicable have been struck out.

UPDATE #2: On September 5th 2023 Jimmy’s contract was restructured ($21.3M of 2023 Salary split out across 5 Seasons).
His contract has yet again been re-analyzed, and his scenarios updated. Old terms have again been struck out for posterity.
 

        Scenario 1:
He has a very marketable 1st year, but we’re ok moving on with a replacement (e.g. a drafted rookie). He’d need to be traded (release isn’t viable).
   Our cost would’ve then been:
      1 year @ $16.3 Million $23.8 Million $6.7 Million
– If we then Trade him: we’d take on $7.5M $0M $17.1M in ’24 Dead Cap  but  create +$20.5M $24.25M $11.4M in ’24 cap space (and +$28.0M $24.25M $28.5M in ’25 cap space).
   ›› His new team’s cost for 2024 would still be $24.25M, and then $24.25M again for 2025. A decently tradeable contract (as Goff’s is $33.5M/yr || Tannehill = $29.5M/yr).
– Cutting is not somewhat back to not viable with us absorbing $18.75M $11.25M $28.3M in 2024 Dead Cap (while only freeing up $9.25M $13.0M $200k).


        Scenario 2:   The Worst Case Scenario
He has a very bad or mediocre 1st year, and ends the season injured. We have very little protection in this scenario, with his contract.
   His deal with us if Released at this point will have been:
      1 year @ $46.3 $35.1 Million  (still the same after Update #2)
– Under the re-worked contracts, this worst-case scenario is not nearly as bad as it was originally. The penalty to cut him if he underperforms is tolerable.
   
›› His $11.25M 2024 Salary is fully guaranteed  (previously, his $11.25M 2024 Roster Bonus was also fully guaranteed & his 2024 Salary was only guaranteed if he got injured).
– Our analysis on Dead Caps gives us insight into how likely such a move is:
   • $11.25M in 2024 is expected to be ~4.68% of the salary cap, assuming the 2014-2022 cap inflation rate continues.
   • from 2018–2022 (5 Seasons), 35.7% of all dead cap transactions of ≥ 2.5% of the salary cap were at least this large.
   • from 2018–2022, there’ve been 12 dead cap transactions every year for proportions this large (≥ 4.68%). Not unheard of.

        Scenario 3:
We move on after 2 seasons (in 2025). Our cost would’ve then been:
      2 years @ $22.15  $24.0  $17.6 Million/yr
– If we then Cut OR Trade him: we’d take on $3.75M  $0M  $12.8M in 2025 Dead Cap  and  would create +$24.25M in 2025 cap space
   ›› If traded, his new team’s cost for 2025 would be $24.25M


        Scenario 4:
Plays out full contract, 3 years @ $24.25M/yr


SUMMARY:
Originally, his contract was rather frustrating as we had very little protection from an injury-prone player. Then (in Update #1) Jimmy G’s deal was re-worked and there was a notably smaller financial risk as, worst-case scenario, we would’ve paid him roughly mid-tier starting QB money ($35.1M) for 1 year of service.

That said, though it is still doable to move on after 1 year (even after Update #2), it seems the team feels he can have a strong role for at least 2 seasons as the contract structure starts to make more sense in that light as it’s been designed to have a tolerable out once his 2nd season concludes after 2024. The most obvious scenario that pops up here is he acts as a knowledgeable bridge quarterback, who will have had 6+ seasons in the system to relay knowledge to a young, rookie quarterback that will obviously go on to be a Hall of Famer.

Seeing as Josh McDaniels has acknowledged how completely raw Jimmy was coming out of college, Jimmy would have first-hand experience learning McDaniels’ offense entirely from scratch. So unless he suddenly has a career resurgence (where this contract is suddenly great), his contract is largely set up to act as a mentor for the next Quarterback and then to act as a very high-priced backup – but, one we could move on from very easily after year 2.

With this contract structure, there’s flexibility in being able to target QB prospects in both the 2023 Draft and the 2024 Draft. We would already have a system-knowledgeable quarterback in-house, and the more time he has to re-acclimate to the system, the more knowledge he’d be able to impart.

Austin Hooper

“1 year, $2.75 Million”
 (ages: 28)
 

 

SUMMARY:
It’s only a 1 year contract, so not much to say but if he doesn’t look good in camp, he’s still likely to be with us for 2023 as it’d cost $2.2M to release him (while only saving $0.8M). That said, as he’ll be just 29 years old after his year with us, he’s incentivized to play well so that he can parlay it into a bigger $$ deal.

Brian Hoyer

“2 years, $4.5 Million”
(ages: 102 37 & 38)
 

 

        Scenario 1:
… the only scenario, given the structure.
   Plays out full contract, 2 years @ $2.25M/yr
– His contract is, for reasons unknown, 93.4% fully guaranteed.
  ›› That means he’s basically uncuttable unless you want to willingly lose millions in Dead Cap – and given his age and talent, nobody would be trading for him.

SUMMARY:
This contract is weird. As mentioned above, with it being 93.4% fully guaranteed, he’s basically uncuttable. And given his age & talent, nobody’s trading for him.

It’s really not clear why he wasn’t just brought in as a QB Coach, seeing as that would’ve cost us $0 in cap space (since coaches don’t draw from the salary cap). Though he has a lot of knowledge about Josh McDaniels’ system, he’s been a career backup. Even in the last 3 Preseasons he’s barely combined for 60 Dropbacks (what would barely be about 1.5 regular season games for most QBs).

In a complete pinch he could theoretically step in, and should definitely know exactly where to go and what to do with the ball by now, given his time in the system – but if we end up drafting a QB, we’ve basically committed to having 3 QBs on the roster. The plus side to that would be two of those (Jimmy G and Brian Hoyer) would be very experienced vets, both of whom could school the young rookie tremendously on the ins & outs of the system.

Entering the 2023 Season we have a combined 9 Seasons of experience specifically in Josh McDaniels’ system (Hoyer: 5 Seasons || Jimmy G: 4 Seasons).

Andre James

“2 years, $8.65 Million”
 (ages: 25 & 26)
 

 

          Scenario 1:
   We move on after 1 year (in 2023). Our cost would’ve then been:
        1 year @ $1.6 Million
– IF we then Cut OR Trade him: we’d only lose $1.92M in 2023 Dead Cap  but  would create +$5.1M in 2023 cap space
  ›› If traded, his new team’s cost would be $6.4M in 2023 (→ 11th highest cap hit for a Center in the NFL).
– Realistically, this would require him having a very bad camp in year 2, or Dylan Parham/a Rookie making a very strong case for Center.

          Scenario 2:
Plays out full contract, 2 years @ $4.3M/yr

SUMMARY:
James’ contract is very reasonable, ranking just 18th in dollars/year among all Centers. As such, it’d be expected he finishes out this contract as he continues to develop. If he can show growth in year 2, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him re-signed, though thus far he hasn’t shown a play level that’d command $9M+/yr. Until he’s able to elevate & cement his performance however, he’ll continue to be at the mercy of Dylan Parham’s development & that of any potential rookie prospects.

Chandler Jones

“3 years, $51.0 Million”
 (ages: 32, 33 & 34)
 


On April 28th, 2023 Chandler Jones’ original contract was restructured to clear $5.1M in 2023 cap space.
His contract has been re-analyzed, and his scenarios have been updated.

 

          Scenario 1:   The Most Likely Scenario (still, though the odds have certainly dropped)
   We move on after 2 years (in 2024). Our cost would’ve then been:
        2 years @ $13.6 $11.0 Million/yr
– IF we then Cut him: we’d lose $7.20 $12.3M in 2024 Dead Cap  but  would create +$12.2M +$8.4M in 2024 cap space
  ›› Given his advanced age, and being due $19.4M $20.7M in 2024, he’s unlikely to be traded as nobody else would be insane enough to pay him what we gave him.
– Our analysis on Dead Caps gives us insight into how likely such a move is:
   • $7.2M $12.3M in 2024 is expected to be ~3.0% ~5.1% of the salary cap, assuming the 2014-2022 cap inflation rate continues.
   • from 2018–2022 (5 Seasons), a whole 74.4% 29.2% of all dead cap transactions ≥ 2.5% of the salary cap were at least this large.
   • from 2018–2022, there’ve been 25 9.8 dead cap transactions per year for proportions this large (≥ 3.0%). Not necessarily rare.

          Scenario 2:
Plays out full contract, 3 years @ $17.0M/yr

SUMMARY:
Maxx Crosby & Clelin Ferrell’s nickname for Chandler Jones: “Old Spice” is apt. There are fossils being discovered younger than Chandler.
Because of how much money was fully guaranteed to him, he’s basically uncuttable until after year 2 (in 2024). Given how Defensive Ends age, it’ll probably never be clear why he was given such a large contract at the age of 32 by this front office, but with that much money involved, it’ll be hard to live up to it.

Fortunately, being able to move on after year 2 (in 2024) is a technically doable option before another $20.7M cap hit is due for a player in his mid-30s. The restructure the team for some reason gave him after a very underwhelming 2022 season made him noticeably harder to cut, but the option is there. Chandler Jones appears to be an amplified version of the Carl Nassib contract we had under Gruden & Mayock. Chandler’s was already a bad contract for the team before the restructure – but now, if we’re being honest, it’s pretty terrible.

His 2022 season was underwhelming, then the 33 year old capped it off by ending it injured. We rewarded both by giving him more money. We restructured his contract, giving him more money on the same day that we drafted his replacement in Tyree Wilson at 7th Overall in the 1st Round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Considering how Chandler Jones is expected to be used, it’s hard to imagine his performance really couldn’t have been replaced by a less expensive (or at least younger) player.

Jakobi Meyers

“3 years, $33.0 Million”
 (ages: 26, 27 & 28)
 

 

          Scenario 1:
   We move on after 1 year (in 2024). Our cost would’ve then been:
        1 year @ $7.3 Million
– IF we then Cut OR Trade him: we’d only lose $3.67M in 2024 Dead Cap  but  would create +$9.17M in 2024 cap space (and +$12.83M in 2025 cap space).
   ›› If cut, we’d need to do so by mid-March 2024 to avoid triggering $10.5M in full guarantees.
   ›› If traded, his new team’s cost would only be $11.0M in both 2024 and 2025.

          Scenario 2:
   We move on after 2 seasons (in 2025). Our cost would’ve then been:
        2 years @ $10.1 Million/yr
– IF we then Cut OR Trade him: we’d only lose $1.83M in 2025 Dead Cap  but  would create +$11.0M in 2025 cap space.
   ›› If traded, his new team’s cost for 2025 would only be $11.0M.

          Scenario 3:
Plays out full contract, 3 years @ $11.0M/yr

          SUMMARY:
LOW risk contract! Great. Tons of flexibility, and all of it is through his prime. Because he’d be ending his contract at age 29, he’s incentivized to perform well so that he can get another contract. Prior to signing with us he’d only earned $6.4M in career earnings. He’ll have just seen Davante Adams earn his family an additional $84.8 Million in his age 29–32 years. Motivation much?

Kolton Miller

“3 years, $54.0 Million”

but really:
5 years, $69.2 Million
 (ages: 24, 25, 26, 27 & 28)
 

 

Kolton Miller’s contract isn’t how it appears on the surface – on the surface, he was given a 3 year contract for $54 Million.
But the problem is this was an extension, and it was signed after his 3rd year in the league. He still had 2 years remaining on his original rookie contract when he was given his first extension. As such, the Raiders restructured that rookie contract and actually spread out the cap hit from his “3 year deal” over 5 years.

   His 3 year contract was supposed to only cover 2023–2025.
   However, his 2021 cap hit was originally $4,286,332.
      • After his new contract, it became $13,469,333.
      • Thus, this reveals the Raiders pulled some of the $54.0M from his “new deal” forward to start paying it off early, in 2021, to lighten the cap hits later.
   His 2022 cap hit was originally going to be a 5th-Year Option worth $10,880,000.
      • After his new contract, it became $16,825,000   ($10.125M of this was later cleared to create 2022 cap space via a $13.5M conversion).
      • This investigation reveals the team again had pulled some of the $54.0M from his “new deal” forward, to 2022.
   When you add the actual money together (old + new) over the actual years paid across, we see that to the team it was actually a 5 year, $69.2M deal.

          Scenario 1:
   We move on after 3 years (in 2024). Our cost would’ve then been:
        3 years @ $12.6 Million/yr
– IF we then Cut OR Trade him: we’d only lose $6.75M in 2024 Dead Cap  but  would create +$8.9M in 2024 cap space (and +$15.7M in 2025 cap space).
   ›› If traded, his new team’s cost would only be $12.3M in both 2024 and 2025. Very tradeable.

          Scenario 2:
   We move on after 4 years (in 2025). Our cost would’ve then been:
        4 years @ $13.4 Million/yr
– IF we then Cut OR Trade him: we’d only lose $1.80M in 2025 Dead Cap  but  would create +$11.0M in 2025 cap space.
   ›› If traded, his new team’s cost for 2025 would only be $11.0M.

          Scenario 3:
Plays out full contract, 5 years @ $13.8M/yr

          SUMMARY:
This contract is amazing. The team took a gamble after the 2020 Season, believing in Miller and that he’d continue to grow as a player. He wasn’t a star player, but they’d seen him develop & had faith in him. He was essentially able to exchange $3.7M in remaining fully guaranteed money into $29.0M in easy guarantees:
   • ($11.5M fully guaranteed + another $17.5M that fully guaranteed if he just played convincingly his 1st year under the new contract)

It also ensures we’re getting prime year performance throughout. Couple that with Tackles enjoying longer careers & the fact he’d be ending his contract at age 29, he’s incentivized to perform well so that he can get yet another large contract. This is really a complete, 100% win-win for both the Raiders and Kolton.

Bilal Nichols

“2 years, $11.0 Million”
 (ages: 26 & 27)
 

 

          Scenario 1:
   A team wants to take a low-risk gamble on a 27 year old DT, and trades for him in 2023 (release isn’t viable).
     Our cost would’ve then been:
       1 year @ $4.3 Million
– Trading him is more likely than cutting him ($1.2M Dead Cap vs. $3.6M if Cut), and would free up +$5.5M in 2023 cap space.
– However, given his past performance, teams would likely want to see multiple years of solid play before gambling away draft assets.
   ›› the new team would have just a $5.5M cap hit, which would only be the 29th ranked DT cap charge in 2023
  
 ›› while it could be mutually beneficial (Cap space for us vs. Low-risk gamble on a 27 year old DT), it’d likely be just a low pick.

          Scenario 2:
   Plays out full contract, 2 years @ $5.5M/yr

SUMMARY:
With his contract 64.8% fully guaranteed, our options are limited. Due to the structure however, we could technically trade him and avoid exactly 50.0% of the contract cost. If the team feels they could replace his performance with a later round prospect, his contract setup allows for such an exploration. It’d require another Defensive Coordinator out there though who was also enamored with Nichols’ play in Chicago, that thinks they can get more out of him. 

Other than that, Nichols will be motivated to perform strongly as, given he’ll only be 28 years old after his contract’s up, he’ll want to show he’s worth a team investing good money in him again. Based on what we know about how Defensive Tackles age, his performance on this contract sets up his last real shot at a bag.

Hunter Renfrow

“2 years, $32.3 Million”

 (ages: 27 & 28) 

 
Hunter Renfrow’s contract was an extension off his rookie contract. Despite that – like Maxx Crosby’s – hardly any money was pulled forward to reduce later cap hits.
In total only $925,000 out of the $32,329,000 was pulled forward (onto 2022’s cap number) – barely 2.9% of the total contract value.

As such, it wouldn’t make sense to pretend the team “stretched” his cap hits out over an additional year. Generally speaking, if 1/2 the APY was not pulled forward, we do not consider it a fair reflection to say a contract cost was spread out. In Kolton Miller’s case, a whole 84.0% of his $18.0M APY was pulled forward (exceeding the 1/2 threshold) and, as such, it’s fair to say the team actually stretched his cap hits out as it took significant amounts of later cap hits off the books (almost a whole year’s APY #).

Upon reflection, the reason the team likely did not pull much forward in Renfrow’s contract (as with Crosby) was because in the same off-season he got his extension, the team had to also budget for: Davante Adams, Derek Carr, Maxx Crosby, and Darren Waller’s extensions. As such, because of the unfortunate timing, it just wasn’t very feasible to pull much money forward. And so, Renfrow’s breakdown will match exactly what was advertised: a 2 year, $32.3M contract.

   

          Scenario 1:
   We move on after 1 year (in 2024). Our cost would’ve then been:
        1 year @ $13.1 Million/yr
– IF we then Cut OR Trade him: we’d lose $5.51M in 2024 Dead Cap  but  would create +$8.21M in 2024 cap space.
– This scenario mainly becomes more likely if it becomes apparent either:
   • Renfrow is not picking up (or performing well in) the system, or
   • He continues to present availability concerns.
– Our analysis on Dead Caps gives us insight into how much resistance teams have to such a move:
   • $5.5M in 2024 is expected to be ~2.29% of the salary cap, assuming the 2014-2022 cap inflation rate continues.
   • from 2018–2022 (5 Seasons), a massive 85.1% of all dead cap transactions ≥ $5.0M were larger than this.
   • from 2018–2022, there’ve been 39.6 dead cap transactions per year for proportions this large (≥ 2.29%). Not unusual!

          Scenario 2:
Plays out full contract, 2 years @ $13.4M/yr

    
SUMMARY
:
This contract is pretty mutually beneficial. Renfrow gets assurance he will get at least 1 big dollar year (in 2023), and the team gets protection from having to pay out a 2nd big dollar year (in 2024) if Hunter either continues to get injured, or his performance doesn’t stay up to snuff.

Hunter would be turning 29 after this contract ends, which generally speaking is when WRs in the league start to age out. In McDaniels’ slot-friendly offense however, Julian Edelman averaged 1,024 yards/season in his age 30, 32 & 33 seasons (missed age 31 season with ACL injury) and even Danny Amendola still averaged 517 yds/season in his age 29, 30 & 31 seasons in New England.

Nonetheless, assuming he can stay healthy we’ll have to see how motivated Hunter will be to secure his family additional financial security – his performance on this contract will be the biggest argument he can make in deserving another deal before riding off into the sunset tree stands. He’s put his body on the line for this team.

Robert Spillane

“2 years, $7.0 Million”
 (ages: 27 & 28)
 

 

        Scenario 1:
   We move on after 1 year (in 2024). Our cost would’ve then been:
      1 year @ $2.70 Million
– IF we then Cut OR Trade him: we’d only lose $0.80M in 2024 Dead Cap  but  would create +$3.50M in 2024 cap space.
   ›› If cut, we’d need to do so before March 2024 in order to avoid triggering a $1.2M Roster Bonus.
   ›› If traded, his new team’s cost for 2024 would only be $3.50M.

        Scenario 2:
Plays out full contract, 2 years @ $3.50M/yr

SUMMARY:
Another flexible deal with an easy out after just 1 year. He’s incentivized to perform so that he can actually earn the larger cap # in year 2 ($4.30M vs. $2.70M in year 1). Further, he’s young enough to where if he pans out, he could be kept around to help with culture and implementation of the system among new players. This deal also has him in his prime, yet again further incentivizing him to perform well so that he can get one last high $$ “lick” of NFL money before retiring.

Jerry Tillery

“2 years, $6.8 Million”
 (ages: 26 & 27)
 

 

          Scenario 1:
   We move on after 1 year (in 2024). Our cost would’ve then been:
      1 year @ $2.60 Million
– IF we then Cut OR Trade him: we’d only lose $0.38M in 2024 Dead Cap  but  would create +$3.80M in 2024 cap space.
   ›› If cut, we’d need to do so before mid-March 2024 to avoid triggering $3.15M in full guarantees.
   ›› If traded, his new team’s cost for 2024 would only be $3.8M.

          Scenario 2:
Plays out full contract, 2 years @ $3.40M/yr

SUMMARY:
VERY low risk. Totally incentivized to perform as he can be cut for peanuts in 2024, but if he did well then he’d be up for another contract for his age 28 season+.